VON GREYERZ (English)
THE VON GREYERZ PERSPECTIVE
Black Monday 2.0?
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6
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Black Monday 2.0?

Piepenburg Dissects the Mayhem: Trade Shocks, Buffett’s Warning, and a Debt-Driven Collapse
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As U.S. markets opened on April 7th, Dow futures plunged 1,000 points and the S&P 500 slid into bear territory—Matthew Piepenburg of VON GREYERZ didn't mince words:

There is blood starting to flow in these streets

On April 7th, U.S. markets plunged into chaos—Dow futures down 1,000 points, the S&P crashing into bear territory. Matthew Piepenburg of VON GREYERZ called it market mayhem, but warned it was no surprise. He points to a toxic cocktail of Trump’s tariff shock, Powell’s early rate-cut signals, and what he calls a “Pavlovian bubble” — an epic overvaluation fueled by stimulus promises. The true canary? Buffett’s massive cash pile, signaling:

Smart money was already on the sidelines.

With the U.S. facing a historic debt crisis and confidence in sovereign bonds eroding, Piepenburg argues the real haven now is precious metals. This isn’t just a pullback—it’s a mean reversion with teeth.

Highlights

00:00–00:12 – Markets Crash at Open
Markets set to open sharply down; Dow futures -1000 points, S&P -3.9%, Nasdaq -4.8%. Major tech stocks in double-digit declines.

00:12–00:34 – Major Tech Selloff
Apple -13%, Nvidia -14%, Meta -12%, Amazon -10%, Bank of America -17%. “Blood in the streets”—but not a surprise.

00:42–00:58 – Fed Euphoria in 2024
In January 2024, markets were bullish due to Fed signaling rate cuts. Markets rallied on expectations, not actual cuts.

01:08–01:31 – Bearish Warnings Ignored
By January 2025, Piepenburg predicted a bearish year. Buffett’s large cash positions were a major warning sign—not just market cap to GDP.

01:36–01:56 – Trump’s Tariff Shock
Trump’s sweeping tariffs are the current market trigger:

  • 10% baseline on all imports

  • 20% on EU

  • 34% on China (on top of existing 20%)

01:57–02:06 – Market Overreaction
Tariffs aren’t surprising—they were telegraphed. Markets are reacting irrationally like it’s unexpected.

02:12–02:31 – Reshoring Strategy
Trump’s goal: reshoring U.S. manufacturing, not just trade war. Tariffs seen as economic sanctions to bring jobs back home.

02:31–02:50 – Reversing Outsourcing
American companies like Apple and John Deere manufacture overseas for cheaper labor. Tariffs aim to reverse this outsourcing trend.

03:04–03:14 – Bubble Meets Needle
Short-term pain expected. Markets were overvalued even without the tariffs—this was a bubble waiting for a needle.

03:24–03:35 – Tech Margins Peak
Margins of “Fabulous Seven” tech stocks have peaked. Once they decline, everything changes.

03:46–04:13 – Tariffs & Debt Clash
Tariffs were poorly timed given U.S. debt levels. Tariffs should’ve followed debt reduction, not preceded it. This sequencing is dangerous.

04:14–04:28 – From Debt to Bond Crisis
Debt crisis → credit crisis → bond crisis. Global investors are looking for safety outside traditional bonds.

04:30–04:50 – Gold as Safe Haven
Gold is a safe haven: not selling off like in 2008, now viewed as a tier-one asset and strategic reserve—not just a hedge.

04:59–05:18 – Prepare for More Pain
Final thoughts: This is just the beginning. Markets were overdue for mean reversion. Best to wait for deeper lows and preserve capital in precious metals, not Treasuries.


WEALTH PRESERVATION NOTE

WEALTH PRESERVATION NOTE

SECURE, FULLY SEGREGATED, UNENCUMBERED, AND INSURED STORAGE OF PHYSICAL GOLD OUTSIDE THE BANKING SYSTEM WITH VON GREYERZ AG

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