In this Gold Sessions interview, Jonny Haycock of VON GREYERZ speaks with economist and long-time precious-metals analyst Alasdair Macleod about three forces quietly reshaping the global financial system:
The tightening physical silver market, China’s long-running gold accumulation strategy, and the growing fragility of sovereign bond markets.
Macleod explains why recent backwardation in silver is not a technical curiosity but a warning sign of physical scarcity and strained liquidity beneath the paper market.
He outlines how industrial demand, ETF structures, leasing, and delivery mechanics are masking, rather than resolving, a deepening imbalance between supply and demand.
The conversation then turns to China, where Macleod presents a compelling case that official gold statistics dramatically understate the country’s true holdings. Drawing on capital flows, mining policy, Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals, and decades of silent accumulation, he argues that China may already control a far larger share of above-ground gold than is widely acknowledged, with profound implications for the future of the dollar-based monetary system.
Finally, Macleod assesses the bond market risks facing the US, UK, and Europe, explaining why rising yields, not central bank policy, will ultimately expose the limits of debt-driven finance and mark the late stage of the fiat currency era.
This is a wide-ranging discussion on monetary power, physical scarcity, and the structural shifts investors ignore at their peril.
00:00 – 00:40 | Introduction and Agenda
Three themes: silver stress, China’s gold strategy, and bond market risk
Each reflects tension between paper markets and physical reality
Sets the case for a broader monetary transition
01:40 – 04:00 | Silver Backwardation and Physical Shortages
Spot prices above futures signal tight physical supply
Delivery demand, not speculation, is driving dislocations
Backwardation warns of real market stress
04:00 – 06:40 | Leasing, ETFs, and Deferred Risk
Bullion banks rely on leasing and ETF redemptions for metal
Lease rates spiked, showing desperation for supply
These tools delay the problem rather than resolve it
06:40 – 09:10 | Industrial Demand and China’s Role in Silver
Industrial use continues rising, especially solar and defense
China’s mining dominance raises export restriction risk
Most above-ground silver is already committed
09:10 – 11:20 | ETFs, India, and the Paper–Physical Divide
Around 80% of London silver is ETF-owned
Indian silver ETFs suspended due to lack of metal
Paper liquidity masks physical scarcity
11:20 – 12:40 | Gold’s Bull Market and Silver’s Catch-Up
Gold remains in a structural bull market
Investors turn to silver as a lower-cost alternative
The gold–silver ratio implies silver is undervalued
12:40 – 15:20 | China’s Long-Term Gold Accumulation
State control over gold and FX enabled covert accumulation
Capital inflows were quietly converted into gold
Gold never lost monetary relevance in China
15:20 – 17:40 | Shanghai Gold Exchange and One-Way Flows
Public gold ownership allowed after strategic stockpiling
Gold entering China rarely leaves
Domestic vaulting locks supply away from global markets
17:40 – 20:10 | Scale of China’s Gold Holdings
Public and private holdings likely dwarf official figures
State, military, and household gold all matter
China may control a major share of global above-ground gold
20:10 – 22:40 | Bond Market Risk Signals
Rising yields reflect growing default and currency risk
Debt and credit expansion mirror late-1920s conditions
Central banks cannot fully control bond markets
22:40 – 25:10 | Fiat Currency Endgame
Excess debt historically ends fiat systems
Bond yields must compensate for inflation and risk
Transition toward a new monetary framework is underway
